2008/05/18

RBI Estimation (3)

2007 Top 25 of Estimated RBI
PlayerTPAAB1B2B3BHRBBHBPSFSHGORBI(Rk)eRBI(Rk)RBI/700(Rk)eRBI/700(Rk)
A Rodriguez7085839831054952190141156(1.0)137.6(1)154.2(1)136.1(2)
P Fielder6815737835250901440131119(9.0)124.1(2)122.3(19)127.5(4)
M Holliday71363612450636631040149137(3.0)120.8(3)134.5(7)118.6(6)
J Rollins7787161243820304976016094(43.5)116.3(4)84.6(133)104.6(30)
C Lee69762711443132534130163119(9.0)114.8(5)119.5(20)115.3(9)
C Pena61249062291461031081106121(6.0)114.4(6)138.4(5)130.8(3)
R Howard648529692604710757085136(4.0)114.1(7)146.9(2)123.2(5)
M Cabrera6805881143823479571133119(9.0)110.4(8)122.5(18)113.7(11)
H Ramirez706639129486295274415281(71.5)109.6(9)80.3(156)108.7(20)
D Ortiz6675499452135111430123117(11.0)109.5(10)122.8(17)114.9(10)
M Ordonez6795951345402876250148139(2.0)109.3(11)143.3(3)112.7(15)
A Pujols6795651143813299780156103(24.0)108.6(12)106.2(48)111.9(17)
D Wright7116041234213094670139107(18.5)107.7(13)105.3(53)106.0(26)
D Uggla7286327249331681311412188(57.0)105.3(14)84.6(132)101.3(47)
A Gonzalez7206461034633065360144100(31.5)104.5(15)97.2(78)101.6(45)
C Beltran6365548433333692101133112(14.5)103.1(16)123.3(16)113.4(13)
A Soriano61757993425333143010870(105.5)102.0(17)79.4(157)115.7(8)
B Phillips7026501252663033125217494(43.5)101.8(18)93.7(90)101.5(46)
A Dunn6325226927240101540103106(20.0)101.8(19)117.4(23)112.7(14)
J Morneau668590953133164590177111(16.5)101.4(20)116.3(25)106.3(23)
V Guerrero6605741134512771960176125(5.0)101.3(21)132.6(9)107.4(21)
A Rios711643117437245567013785(62.0)99.9(22)83.7(138)98.3(64)
C Jones600513984242982050133102(27.0)99.6(23)119.0(21)116.2(7)
A Rowand6846121174502747194215089(54.5)98.9(24)91.1(101)101.2(50)
L Berkman668561962423494850147102(27.0)98.8(25)106.9(46)103.6(34)

根據前兩篇的推論,我們最後得到eRBI(Estimated RBI) = 0.228*1B + 0.442*2B + 0.613*3B + 1.607*HR +0.022*BB + 0.033*HBP + 1.000*SF + 0.025*SH + 0.022*GO

上表是2007年eRBI最高的25名打者的打擊成績。

Sort By RBI
Player RBI(Rk)eRBI(Rk)
A Rodriguez156(1.0)137.6(1)
M Ordonez139(2.0)109.3(11)
M Holliday137(3.0)120.8(3)
R Howard136(4.0)114.1(7)
V Guerrero125(5.0)101.3(21)
C Pena121(6.0)114.4(6)
M Lowell120(7.0)93.2(37)
M Cabrera119(9.0)110.4(8)
P Fielder119(9.0)124.1(2)
C Lee119(9.0)114.8(5)
Player RBI/700(Rk)eRBI/700(Rk)
A Rodriguez154.2(1)136.1(2)
R Howard146.9(2)123.2(5)
M Ordonez143.3(3)112.7(15)
S Sosa141.9(4)101.8(43)
C Pena138.4(5)130.8(3)
R Braun138.0(6)136.2(1)
M Holliday134.5(7)118.6(6)
B Hawpe134.0(8)106.2(24)
V Guerrero132.6(9)107.4(21)
M Lowell128.6(10)99.9(57)

我們可以看到RBI前十名的打者大多也是eRBI榜上的領先者,Mike Lowell是個極端的例外,他的eRBI只能排在第37名(也就是平均一隊有1.2個人的等級),但是實際的RBI卻是第7名,這要歸功於他前段隊友的上壘能力和他本身在壘上有人的表現。不意外的,RBI領先群幾乎都有著超出預估值的RBI,Prince Fielder是唯一的例外,RBI比eRBI還低了5分。

在RBI/700PA的部份,我們可以看到Sammy Sosa取代了Lowell的地位,而Fielder掉出前10名後,RBI-eRBI最低的變成了他的隊友Ryan Braun。

Sort By Estimated RBI
Player RBI(Rk)eRBI(Rk)
A Rodriguez156(1.0)137.6(1)
P Fielder119(9.0)124.1(2)
M Holliday137(3.0)120.8(3)
J Rollins94(43.5)116.3(4)
C Lee119(9.0)114.8(5)
C Pena121(6.0)114.4(6)
R Howard136(4.0)114.1(7)
M Cabrera119(9.0)110.4(8)
H Ramirez81(71.5)109.6(9)
D Ortiz117(11.0)109.5(10)
Player RBI/700(Rk)eRBI/700(Rk)
R Braun138.0(6)136.2(1)
A Rodriguez154.2(1)136.1(2)
C Pena138.4(5)130.8(3)
P Fielder122.3(19)127.5(4)
R Howard146.9(2)123.2(5)
M Holliday134.5(7)118.6(6)
C Jones119.0(21)116.2(7)
A Soriano79.4(157)115.7(8)
C Lee119.5(20)115.3(9)
D Ortiz122.8(17)114.9(10)

Jimmy Rollins和Hanley Ramirez都有很強的清壘能力,打第一棒讓他們的實際打點數大打折扣。

不過話說回來,要不是打第一棒,他們也沒辦法打那麼多打席。以eRBI/700PA來看,Alfonso Soriano才是唯一能和中心打者一拼清壘能力的第一棒。

Sort By RBI - eRBI
Player RBI(Rk)eRBI(Rk)
M Ordonez139(2.0)109.3(11)
M Lowell120(7.0)93.2(37)
S Sosa92(48.5)66.0(120)
B Hawpe116(12.0)92.0(39)
V Guerrero125(5.0)101.3(21)
R Howard136(4.0)114.1(7)
M Young94(43.5)72.7(97)
E Brown62(140.0)41.4(224)
A Rodriguez156(1.0)137.6(1)
B McCann92(48.5)73.8(93)
Player RBI/700(Rk)eRBI/700(Rk)
S Sosa141.9(4)101.8(43)
E Brown109.3(39)72.9(201)
M Ordonez143.3(3)112.7(15)
R Hernandez106.1(49)75.6(186)
M Lowell128.6(10)99.9(57)
B Hawpe134.0(8)106.2(24)
V Guerrero132.6(9)107.4(21)
R Howard146.9(2)123.2(5)
B McCann116.7(24)93.6(84)
M Young95.1(87)73.5(200)

Ordonez奪下RBI超出預估最多的打者頭銜,Lowell和Sosa緊追在後,但是以比率上來看,比eRBI多打了一半的Emi Brown可能才是最神奇的。比較有意思的是主打第三棒但第二棒也打了不少的Michael Young也出現在這個榜上。

Sort By eRBI - RBI
Player RBI(Rk)eRBI(Rk)
A Soriano70(105.5)102.0(17)
H Ramirez81(71.5)109.6(9)
A Iwamura34(229.0)58.9(162)
C Young68(112.0)90.9(41)
C Granderson74(90.5)96.9(30)
J Rollins94(43.5)116.3(4)
J Reyes57(164.0)79.3(77)
K Lofton38(223.5)59.6(155)
J Pierre41(215.5)62.3(141)
R Weeks36(227.0)56.9(172)
Player RBI/700(Rk)eRBI/700(Rk)
A Soriano79.4(157)115.7(8)
A Iwamura42.6(242)73.7(198)
R Weeks49.8(236)78.7(169)
H Ramirez80.3(156)108.7(20)
D Eckstein44.8(240)72.9(202)
L Castillo32.8(248)60.0(239)
K Lofton47.6(237)74.6(192)
Y Escobar55.2(227)81.0(157)
C Young76.3(175)102.0(42)
C Granderson76.6(174)100.4(53)

eRBI超出RBI最多的前十名,第一棒的天下。


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