Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Houston Astros

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 662

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 663

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
3	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
6	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
7	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
8	Manzella,Thomas	0.247	0.297	0.346	0.286
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Keppinger

Expected Runs/Season: 682

(用Sullivan取代Bourn並不會打下更多分數)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Bourn,Michael	0.260	0.330	0.354	0.317
2	Keppinger,Jeff	0.279	0.336	0.385	0.319
3	Berkman,Lance	0.279	0.394	0.517	0.394
4	Lee,Carlos	0.298	0.354	0.514	0.372
5	Pence,Hunter	0.277	0.337	0.475	0.350
6	Matsui,Kaz	0.261	0.319	0.373	0.312
7	Towles,Justin	0.243	0.307	0.375	0.300
8	Feliz,Pedro	0.254	0.302	0.391	0.303
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Cincinnati Reds

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 681

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297
2	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
5	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
6	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 685

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
2	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
3	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
6	Hernandez,Ramon	0.255	0.323	0.385	0.314
7	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Stubbs,Drew	0.235	0.307	0.348	0.297

Optimized Lineup with Dickerson, Hanigan

Expected Runs/Season: 706

(ZiPS相當看衰Stubbs)

(這打線不管從傳統角度或stathead角度都相當地詭異)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Hanigan,Ryan	0.267	0.343	0.357	0.317
2	Dickerson,Chris	0.247	0.337	0.394	0.330
3	Votto,Joey	0.293	0.374	0.500	0.378
4	Rolen,Scott	0.283	0.352	0.439	0.347
5	Cabrera,Orlando	0.291	0.344	0.396	0.332
6	Phillips,Brandon	0.276	0.326	0.446	0.339
7	Gomes,Jonny	0.243	0.321	0.471	0.342
8	Bruce,Jay	0.251	0.317	0.459	0.333
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 767

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
3	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 768

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Fukudome,Kosuke	0.259	0.366	0.412	0.346
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
6	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
7	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Xavier Nady

Expected Runs/Season: 768

(事實上比使用Fukudome還低一點. 如果讓Fukudome和Nady一起先發, Byrd坐板凳, 一樣是768分)

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Theriot,Ryan	0.287	0.352	0.373	0.329
2	Lee,Derrek	0.293	0.374	0.502	0.379
3	Soto,Geovany	0.262	0.347	0.459	0.351
4	Ramirez,Aramis	0.295	0.364	0.519	0.378
5	Byrd,Marlon	0.291	0.341	0.463	0.348
6	Fontenot,Mike	0.263	0.333	0.421	0.331
7	Nady,Xavier	0.288	0.332	0.473	0.346
8	Soriano,Alfonso	0.268	0.328	0.494	0.353
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 San Francisco Giants

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 688

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
2	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
3	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
4	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
5	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
6	Molina,Bengie	0.271	0.300	0.424	0.312
7	Schierholtz,Nate	0.289	0.325	0.459	0.338
8	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 695

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
2	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
3	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
4	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
5	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
6	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
7	Schierholtz,Nate	0.289	0.325	0.459	0.338
8	Molina,Bengie	0.271	0.300	0.424	0.312
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Posey, Lewis

Expected Runs/Season: 704

我也不曉得ZiPS為什麼那麼看好Fred Lewis......

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Posey,Buster	0.263	0.342	0.398	0.330
2	Lewis,Fred	0.274	0.351	0.427	0.343
3	DeRosa,Mark	0.273	0.343	0.434	0.341
4	Sandoval,Pablo	0.320	0.370	0.516	0.380
5	Sanchez,Freddy	0.296	0.333	0.413	0.327
6	Renteria,Edgar	0.280	0.341	0.388	0.326
7	Huff,Aubrey	0.270	0.333	0.448	0.338
8	Rowand,Aaron	0.273	0.323	0.431	0.328
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 San Diego Padres

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 580

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Gwynn,Anthony	0.258	0.326	0.321	0.299
2	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
3	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
4	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
5	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
6	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
7	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
8	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 583

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Gwynn,Anthony	0.258	0.326	0.321	0.299
2	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
3	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
4	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
5	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
6	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
7	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
8	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup with Scott Hairston

Expected Runs/Season: 597

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Headley,Chase	0.252	0.325	0.383	0.316
2	Blanks,Kyle	0.246	0.325	0.406	0.322
3	Gonzalez,Adrian	0.268	0.366	0.507	0.375
4	Hairston,Scott	0.243	0.305	0.424	0.317
5	Cabrera,Everth	0.243	0.317	0.328	0.299
6	Eckstein,David	0.264	0.317	0.335	0.295
7	Venable,Will	0.249	0.307	0.385	0.307
8	Hundley,Nicholas	0.230	0.291	0.370	0.292
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 777

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Furcal,Rafael	0.275	0.345	0.384	0.328
2	Kemp,Matt	0.300	0.358	0.501	0.373
3	Ethier,Andre	0.286	0.364	0.506	0.374
4	Ramirez,Manny	0.290	0.399	0.538	0.403
5	Loney,James	0.292	0.360	0.444	0.353
6	Blake,Casey	0.268	0.341	0.455	0.346
7	Martin,Russell	0.272	0.363	0.392	0.340
8	Dewitt,Blake	0.250	0.331	0.397	0.322
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 783

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Martin,Russell	0.272	0.363	0.392	0.340
2	Ramirez,Manny	0.290	0.399	0.538	0.403
3	Ethier,Andre	0.286	0.364	0.506	0.374
4	Loney,James	0.292	0.360	0.444	0.353
5	Kemp,Matt	0.300	0.358	0.501	0.373
6	Furcal,Rafael	0.275	0.345	0.384	0.328
7	Blake,Casey	0.268	0.341	0.455	0.346
8	Dewitt,Blake	0.250	0.331	0.397	0.322
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Colorado Rockies

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 750

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Gonzalez,Carlos	0.270	0.335	0.459	0.346
2	Fowler,Dexter	0.261	0.350	0.379	0.329
3	Helton,Todd	0.291	0.402	0.442	0.376
4	Tulowitzki,Troy	0.280	0.357	0.487	0.363
5	Hawpe,Brad	0.289	0.389	0.524	0.392
6	Iannetta,Chris	0.241	0.343	0.437	0.341
7	Stewart,Ian	0.247	0.330	0.446	0.337
8	Barmes,Clint	0.259	0.301	0.413	0.309
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 754

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Helton,Todd	0.291	0.402	0.442	0.376
2	Hawpe,Brad	0.289	0.389	0.524	0.392
3	Iannetta,Chris	0.241	0.343	0.437	0.341
4	Tulowitzki,Troy	0.280	0.357	0.487	0.363
5	Gonzalez,Carlos	0.270	0.335	0.459	0.346
6	Stewart,Ian	0.247	0.330	0.446	0.337
7	Barmes,Clint	0.259	0.301	0.413	0.309
8	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168
9	Fowler,Dexter	0.261	0.350	0.379	0.329

Optimized Lineup with Seth Smith

Expected Runs/Season: 782

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Iannetta,Chris	0.241	0.343	0.437	0.341
2	Helton,Todd	0.291	0.402	0.442	0.376
3	Hawpe,Brad	0.289	0.389	0.524	0.392
4	Smith,Seth	0.289	0.369	0.473	0.368
5	Tulowitzki,Troy	0.280	0.357	0.487	0.363
6	Gonzalez,Carlos	0.270	0.335	0.459	0.346
7	Stewart,Ian	0.247	0.330	0.446	0.337
8	Barmes,Clint	0.259	0.301	0.413	0.309
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Lineup Evaluation - 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 781

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jackson,Conor	0.278	0.355	0.441	0.350
2	Drew,Stephen	0.265	0.330	0.444	0.336
3	Upton,Justin	0.282	0.365	0.521	0.381
4	LaRoche,Adam	0.287	0.368	0.520	0.381
5	Reynolds,Mark	0.258	0.342	0.509	0.364
6	Montero,Miguel	0.275	0.341	0.451	0.344
7	Young,Chris	0.236	0.316	0.440	0.329
8	Johnson,Kelly	0.279	0.354	0.472	0.359
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

Optimized Lineup

Expected Runs/Season: 785

#	Batter	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA*
1	Jackson,Conor	0.278	0.355	0.441	0.350
2	LaRoche,Adam	0.287	0.368	0.520	0.381
3	Reynolds,Mark	0.258	0.342	0.509	0.364
4	Upton,Justin	0.282	0.365	0.521	0.381
5	Johnson,Kelly	0.279	0.354	0.472	0.359
6	Montero,Miguel	0.275	0.341	0.451	0.344
7	Drew,Stephen	0.265	0.330	0.444	0.336
8	Young,Chris	0.236	0.316	0.440	0.329
9	Pitcher	0.139	0.183	0.176	0.168

2010 Lineup Evaluations

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Evaluate Lineups - 2010

決定來用Lineup Evaluator預估各隊先發打線和最佳化打線一年能打下多少分數.

(不是預估全年得分, 因為先發打線不可能完全全勤)

球員的成績使用ZiPS的預測.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks : 781

Colorado Rockies : 750

Los Angeles Dodgers : 777

San Diego Padres : 580

San Francisco Giants : 688

NL Central

Chicago Cubs : 767

Cincinnati Reds : 681

Houston Astros : 662

Milwaukee Brewers : 698

Pittsburgh Pirates : 683

St. Louis Cardinals : 792

NL East

Atlanta Braves : 791

Florida Marlins : 708

New York Mets : 766

Philadelphia Phillies : 820

Washington Nationals : 689

AL West

Los Angeles Angels : 833

Oakland Athletics : 729

Seattle Mariners : 718

Texas Rangers : 829

AL Central

Chicago White Sox : 760

Cleveland Indians : 802

Detroit Tigers : 722

Kansas City Royals : 721

Minnesota Twins : 860

AL East

Baltimore Orioles : 813

Boston Red Sox : 918

New York Yankees : 901

Tampa Bay Rays : 813

Toronto Blue Jays : 719

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2010小魚聯盟選秀會

第8年參加小魚聯盟的現場喊價選秀, 今年還一邊Debug一邊喊價, 實在是夠累人的 XD

今年留了三隻沒有長打的快腿, 所以選秀會上唯一重點就是加強長打, 手頭上有145現金要喊4打5投, 投手可以都用1元投手撐, 換言之有140元的預算喊4名打者(包含SS MI各一名), 看起來是十分充裕, 不過目標是補125HR, 也是相當高難度.

今年是超級MI年, Hanley Ramirez領銜, Troy Tulowizki, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Yunel Escobar等人都進入了FA市場.

相較之下, CI及OF的陣容就差多了, David Wright, Matt Holliday和Adrian Gonzalez是最好的, 但是我不需要額外的SB, 所以人選剩下以下幾名:Jason Bay, Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz, Jay Bruce.

可以發現靠這些人要把140元花完並不是很容易, MI兩名勢必要選擇高價球員, 而高價有火力的MI幾乎都附帶20+的SB, 為此在季末我特地在一個包裹交易中把Chone Figgins賣出並換來了Jose Lopez先行補上2B位置.

剩下的SS空位最好當然是能喊到Hanley Ramirez, 如此我的SB就補足了. 而MI位置自然是以高長打, 不會盜壘, AVG一團糟的Dan Uggla為首選.

選秀會第一順位就用$58喊到了Hanley, 安心了不少. 接下來Berkman和Bay的價碼超出預算就放過了. 之後的David Ortiz以$18入手, Carlos Lee也在預算內以$32簽下, 順利地在市場炮火枯竭前就補足了CI/OF部份.

照著計畫喊完三名打者後, 以最高32元的狀態等著Uggla出現.

根據Yahoo的平均成交價位, 我預測Uggla在本聯盟的價格約在22~25之間, 這樣喊完他還可以剩下足夠的資金在末盤搶後段投手. 沒想到Uggla喊到$28, 超出預期太多, 只好放棄.

由於沒喊到Uggla, 只好把目標轉往Richie Weeks, Stephen Drew和Johnny Peralta身上. 同時因為打者肯定會剩下超過10元的可用資金出來, 所以開始留意中段班的投手.

此時由於選秀網站在中午CPU Quota爆掉, 被空間商停權. 所以沒有掌握好狀況, Peralta和Drew喊到目標價位後都讓給大戶Poorer, 但Weeks還是被其他的大戶劫走.

投手部份先喊到了Luke Gregerson. 中間對Lilly, Harang, Ervin Santana等人有出價, 但都沒喊到. 在Drew和Weeks都沒喊到後死心, 趕緊把市場上僅剩較好的SP Blanton及Maine各以$10及$5抓下.

然後以$3簽下口袋名單的Bud Norris, 以$5簽下剩餘投手中較有價值的開季closer Kevin Gregg.

MI的空位本來想簽個Everth Cabrera去交易, 但是比Theriot貴4塊實在簽不下去..... 最後以$4簽下Orlando Hudson, 留下$7結束了先發選秀.

板凳選秀按計畫挑了三名RP: Rafael Betancourt, Sergio Romo及Kris Medlen. Medlen可放SP讓7名RP均可上場.

另外挑了兩名有長打但沒工作的炮手賭運氣, 分別是Hank Blalock及Jermaine Dye.

總結這次選秀, 因為沒喊到Uggla讓後半段大亂, 最後留下$7實在挺浪費的. 如果MI或SP可以早點出手喊個好一級的會滿意一點.

最後的陣容自然是HR不足, SB和AVG有多, 投手倒是比預計的好上不少.

最終陣容

Pos	Player	Elig	$	約
C	Joe Mauer	C	28	B
C	Geovany Soto	C	13	O
1B	David Ortiz	1B	18	A
3B	Mark Teahen	3B,1B,OF	1	B
CI	Garrett Jones	1B.OF	3	B
2B	Jose Lopez	2B,1B	6	2
SS	Hanley Ramirez	SS	58	A
MI	Orlando Hudson	2B	4	A
OF	Carlos Lee	OF	32	A
OF	Nyjer Morgan	OF	1	B
OF	Rajai Davis	OF	1	B
OF	Brett Gardner	OF	6	B
OF	Conor Jackson	1B,OF	6	O
UT	Luke Scott	1B,OF	7	B
B	Hank Blalock	1B	9	A
B	Jermaine Dye	OF	6	A
P	Roy Halladay	SP	40	B
P	Brett Anderson	SP	3	B
P	Justin Duchscherer	SP	3	O
P	Joe Blanton	SP	10	A
P	John Maine	SP	5	A
P	Bud Norris	SP	3	A
P	Kris Medlen	SP,RP	3	A
P	Neftali Feliz	RP	9	B
P	Kevin Gregg	RP	5	A
P	Michael Wuertz	RP	3	B
P	Sergio Romo	RP	6	A
P	Luke Gregerson	RP	3	A
P	Rafael Betancourt	RP	9	A

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